2017 Season Preview

2017 Guru Cup Season Preview

Here we are folks, year 9 of the Guru Cup is upon us. I have updated the Guru Cup historical stat database, which you can find by clicking here. With that, I decided to dive into a 4-pack of questions supported by a mix of Guru historical data, my own sixth (or even seventh) sense, and a large percentage of wild ass guess.

Will Rob Wilder (License to Kill) finally break his playoff slump?

When it comes to regular season success, there is no rival to what Rob has done in Guru history. The numbers are quite staggering, really. He has averaged 8.5 wins per season (Steve Saks, aka AIDS, is 2nd with 7.4), 98.9 points scored per game (Saks in 2nd here as well, with 95.6), and has earned a ridiculous 5 playoff byes and 6 playoff appearances in 8 years. Just about the only regular season record that Rob does not have belongs to Steve, who has reached the playoffs 7 times in 8 seasons. So, despite missing the playoffs in 2 of the last 3 years, Rob has historically been altogether dominant.

The problem, of course, is in weeks 14-16 where Rob sports an erection-softening 1-6 record and has lost by an average of 20 points in the 6 losses. Brutal. Is this just a sample size issue, where we can expect Rob’s overall numbers to start to pan out in the playoffs as well? Or could it really be that the players he drafts just don’t want to win for him? Coming off of a very solid draft, Rob is poised once again to contend for a regular season title, but does he have the wherewithal to turn around his playoff woes? I will look into my crystal ball in the last section…

Speaking of playoff success, who gets it done in the money weeks?

From an efficiency perspective, we have to first rule out Tom Briggs (Marshawn ‘Lynch Val’) and his 3-0 record simply because he was sooo terrible last season. That leaves our defending champion, and 2-time Guru Cup winner, Sean Brandt (Ballstompers). Sean has made the playoffs 4 times, winning the whole fuckin thing twice, and with a 5-2 playoff record he exemplifies a boom/bust playoff team.

In terms of raw volume, yours truly (Chris, Its My Vick in a Box) is well out ahead in terms of total wins with a 10-5 playoff record. Yet with only the 1 Guru Cup to show for it, I have sadly become the standard bearer of close but no cigar after losing in the Guru Cup Championship for the third time last season. If history is any indication, then I will not be making a return trip to the championships after making it there in every even year of Guru Cup history.

So who should we expect to see making moves to position themselves for playoff success?

If it has to do with the regular season, Rob owns it. This is no exception, as he averages 34.6 moves per season. Rob is followed closely by Chris and Davis, with 33.3 and 31.1 moves/year respectively. Clearly, many of these moves are tied to streaming options at certain positions, but with the next most active manager being Steve at 24.1 moves/year, you should expect to see this trio of waiver bandits all over the transaction history once again.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, you might be wondering about who is sitting on their hands during the season?... or at least I am wondering about it, and since I’m writing this it doesn’t really matter what you’re wondering right now. Obviously we will throw out numbers from managers who are no longer in the league, otherwise the 2009 Lisa Denman season was a wonderful example of idle management completing 2 moves… all year. Even Rick averaged more than that (7.7). Of active managers, the notorious Z.E.N. (Zen) averages 13.1 moves per season, best exemplified by his memorable run of 3-straight losses in 2012 while starting an injured Percy Harvin to finish 6-7 and miss the playoffs.

Alright, enough already, who is going to win the Cup?

Okay, so we took the circuitous route to this question, but ultimately this what it all boils down to. As the great Snoop Dogg once said, “It ain’t no fun, if the homies can’t have none”… which would actually mean if the homies can have some, but a literary technician Snoop Lion is not. I digress. Let’s walk through my fearless forecast for this season.

Regular Season finish:

1 - Chad (The Abusement Park)

It would take a Zen-like effort to mess up a draft with the top overall player as your 6th round pick, and Chad certainly did not. With Julio Jones, Keenan Allen, Isaiah Crowell, and Marshawn Lynch surrounding DJ, this team could end up with 4-5 guys as either an RB1 or WR1 when all is said and done. If Luck gets healthy, this is an extremely dangerous squad.

2 - James (J Devious)

Cuz Jay Ajayi, is my fuckin keepa… and in the 6th round, no less. That helps. Also helpful are the top QB in Aaron Rodgers, a top 2 TE in Travis Kelce, a top 5 RB in Shady McCoy, and a group of well-rounded WRs in Emmanuel Sanders, Larry Fitz, and Stefon Diggs. Not a huge fan of the bench here, but with decent in-season management James will be one playoff win away from championship appearance.

3 - Rob W (License to Kill)

After the draft, Rob was certainly vocal about how good his team is, so now he needs to have his ass cash the check that his mouth wrote, or something like that. Assisted by another high value mid-round keeper in Michael Thomas, after winning the consolation bracket last year Rob led off with Le’Veon Bell and has some seriously high upside throughout. I’m bullish on Terrelle Pryor and Dalvin Cook, along with guys who have been there done that, such as Philip Rivers, Mark Ingram, Sammy Watkins, and Doug Martin, there is a lot to like about Rob’s team this year.

4 - Chris (Its My Vick in a Box, new name pending)

Okay, full disclosure, I don’t think my team is the fourth best team coming out of the draft. Aside from Kareem Hunt, who I would gladly blow, there is very little “wow” to this team, but some reasonable depth. The #4 finish is tied to a draft that is good enough, savvy in-season management that makes ladies panties drip droppin, and the commitment to extend the longest active playoff streak in the league to 6 straight seasons.

5 - Rob F (Bell End)

Love the starters, hate the bench. Mike Evans, Devonta Freeman, and Jordan Reed are elite options at their respective positions, supplemented with breakout candidate Marcus Mariota and two more potentially top end WRs in D-Hop and TY Hilton. Fighting through injuries will be difficult, but Rob should see the playoffs again.

6 - Steve (AIDS)

It will be tough making it to the playoffs saddled with two losses due to playing Chris twice, but Steve is up to the task. Drew Brees has more 5,000 yard seasons than all other QBs in NFL history combined (think about that), including last year, and he joins young RBs Leonard Fournette, Todd Gurley, and Ty Montgomery on this squad. Not psyched about these WRs, but Doug Baldwin as a 7th round keeper is great value, and Steve will always keep his team in the mix with moves as needed.

7 - Sean (Ballstompers)

The returning champ won’t make it to the dance? Yeah, that’s right. Maybe I’m still a little butthurt from losing the Guru to him last year, but I see Sean barely missing out. OBJ, Demaryius Thomas, and Jimmy Graham should provide consistently strong play, but I hate Lamar Miller – fact. Too much uncertainty elsewhere here. How involved will Tyreek Hill be? How much will Smokin Jay hurt Jarvis Landry? How far will Dak Prescott regress after his unsustainable efficiency last year? Will Sean be back to writing a song about missing the Guru Cup next year? We shall see…

8 - Matt (Hot Cheese Soup)

The last time I predicted a losing season for Matt, he dominated everyone on the way to a Guru Cup, so you’re welcome Matt. Nevertheless, 6-7 sounds about right here. Owning the Tom Brady/GOAT to Gronk connection, along with Antonio Brown, guarantees a few wins right there. Jay Cutler loves him some DeVante Parker. Things get a bit shaky after that, but there is enough upside to bump Matt into the playoffs with a few good breaks.

9 - Zen (Zen)

Aside from winning the award for most creative team name, Zen drafted a team that looks primed for weekly booms and busts. Kirk Cousins and Martavis Bryant are both on my love list, but including Amari Cooper, Paul Perkins, and Run DMC, steady weekly production is not in the future here. Melvin Gordon and Greg Olsen help, but there will be a ton of weekly variance with Zen’s scoring and ultimately a playoff miss.

10 - Tom (Marshawn ‘Lynch Val’)

After shocking the world in his first season by winning the Guru Cup as a rookie, Briggs looks to rebound from an atrocious 2016 where he averaged the fewest points per game (77.39) by any team in the Guru Cup since 2010. After AJ Green, question marks abound. Christian McCaffrey could certainly breakout, but the middle of round 2 seemed too high. Matt Ryan, Alshon Jeffrey, and Allen Robinson are all well-known bust candidates that are more likely to fizzle than flame.

11 - Davis (Equal Rights & Lefts)

Davis opted for scooping up players that excel in ensuring that their women watch their tone. Many feel that Jameis Winston and Jordan Howard will continue taking strides forward in production, although I am only lukewarm on both. Mixon could be great if he can get the opportunity, but is being drafted as if he already owns the backfield shares. As of this writing, signs are pointing to Ezekiel Elliot successfully blocking this suspension and playing week 1, which could certainly bump Davis up the rankings, although I am not convinced that alone will propel him into a playoff position.

12 - Mike (In Tom We Trust)

I’m not sure what can be said about Mike’s draft that hasn’t already been said about dumpster babies… weak, defenseless garbage. After taking Dez Bryant and Brandin Cooks, things really went off the rails. Mike Gillislee in the 3rd, Cam “I Double-Clicked” Newton in the 4th, et al. It will take a colossal managerial effort along with tremendously good fortune for Mike to earn his first ever playoff appearance this year.

Playoffs Round 1:

Rob W. def. Steve
Chris def. Rob F.

Playoffs Semi-Finals:

Chris def. Chad
James def. Rob W.

Battle for the Guru Cup:

James def. Chris

That’s right, I am predicting the second all-Velissaris Guru Cup Championship, and yet another Guru Cup loss added onto my resume.

So there you have it (whether you like it or not), the 2017 Guru Cup Season Preview. Looking forward to seeing your comments on disagreements below, as I am sure that there are many. Good luck!